Notes on the Crises

I had so many thoughts about the run up to- and beginning of- the Trump-Iran war. My biggest thoughts were focused on how the ideas that I developed about the stock market as a “conventional wisdom processor” applied- or would apply- to the behavior of the oil market given Trump’s behavior.

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Last August, President Trump made the unprecedented choice of moving to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

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This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.  Joshua Lawrence is a research fellow at Notes on the Crises

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This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. Subscribe to support our work. Subscribe Today! When I first learned of Alan Greenspan’s death at the age of 100 a few weeks ago, my first thoughts were not about any of his

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EDITORS NOTE: I (Nathan) have struggled whether to rush to comment on this proposed OMB rule. Being a recent Fiscal Year 2026 OMB memo, and knowing that the OMB will continue to create new forms of budgetary crises, I didn’t want to rush

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This is a premium piece of Notes on the Crises. Subscribe here to read the full piece- and series. Find part one here and part two here. Dear readers. I was interrupted by sickness last winter from finishing this series. However, it's

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Today is the 6th anniversary of Bloomberg Businessweek's profile on me, which forever changed my life. Its so long ago now that many readers may not actually be familiar with it, so I'm linking to it for the first time

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This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip.  Joshua Lawrence is a research fellow at Notes on the Crises

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This is part two of an ongoing premium series. Find the introduction to the series here and part one here.  Buy a Paid Subscription Since the last piece on the IOU was an “instrument” piece, this piece will be a “criteria” piece.  Before getting

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This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip. Joshua Lawrence is a research fellow at Notes on the Crises

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We are going to begin this series at its foundation—the IOU. The foundational capacity on which all finance is built is the capacity to make a promise.

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This is a free piece of Notes on the Crises. All pieces in this OMB series will be free. Please take out a paid subscription to support this work. Or leave a tip. Subscribe Today! Joshua Lawrence is a research fellow at Notes on

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